Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions
Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We calculated the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a ‘standard’ 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. Emissions reductions are phased in gradually begin in 2020. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. State-level results for the US are provided here.
Results shown here are based upon the peer-reviewed publication: Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions, by Drew Shindell, Greg Faluvegi, Karl Seltzer, and Cary Shindell, Nature Climate Change 8, no. 4 (April 2018): 291
Link_to_PaperThe assistance of Cypress River Advisors with this visualization is gratefully acknowledged.
Avoided Premature Deaths Due to PM2.5 and Ozone Over the Period 2020-2100 from co-emissions Accompanying Accelerated CO2 Emissions Reductions
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